1998 Annual Report

Burglary

Aggravated Assault describes an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault is usually accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. Attempts are included since it is not necessary that injury result when a gun, knife, or other weapon is used which could and probably would result in serious personal injury if the crime were successfully completed.

Burglary is considered a much graver crime than larceny, since it usually involves breaking into someone's home or business. Great diversity exists within the ranks of burglars: a great many are "crude," unrefined thieves who, with little finesse, will smash a window and enter an unoccupied house or building. Because long-term success at burglary involves innovation, risk, and proficiency, the crime is often associated with "professional," master thieves who disable alarm systems and steal oil paintings and oriental rugs.

The latter type of burglar-the professional thief who used to commit 200 to 300 housebreaks per year, many in wealthy residential locations-has become a dinosaur. He has been put out of business by priority prosecution programs, patrol and investigative strategies, and early detection of patterns. The demise of this "one-man crime wave" has caused burglary to plunge 70 percent since 1980 and 53 percent since 1990. The 1997 total was the lowest burglary statistic the Cambridge Police Department has reported since we started measuring crime in the 1960s. The crime rose 17 percent between 1997 and 1998, but the 1998 total is still the second lowest in 30 years.

Burglaries in Cambridge are evenly spread throughout the day, with more business breaks occurring at night and on weekends, and more residential breaks occurring during the workday. Seldom does a resident or business owner encounter a burglar, and only very rarely (except in the case of domestic burglaries) does a resident come to harm during a burglary.

For the purpose of analysis, the crime of burglary is divided into two categories: Commercial Burglary and Residential Burglary ("housebreaks"). Commercial breaks showed a nine percent increase in 1998, while housebreaks increased 20 percent.

Commercial Burglary

Commercial burglary, or commercial breaks, describes the burglary of a business, government, or retail establishment. This crime has experienced decreases over the past 10 years, but not as dramatically as residential burglary.

Geography

As in past years, the Porter Square business district accounted for the highest number of commercial burglaries-25% in 1998. Affected in this area are businesses along Massachusetts Avenue between Porter Square and the Arlington line. Second highest, as is common, was the Alewife/West Cambridge district, where the hot spot is Concord Avenue between Fresh Pond Parkway and the Belmont Line. Full discussions of each geographic clustering appear on the next page.

Targets

Most often targeted are miscellaneous retail establishments, particularly in Porter Square and Central Square. Retail burglars search through cash registers, hoping for a share of the day's profits, and they often take inexpensive items (groceries, cigarettes, lottery tickets) sold by the store. Following this are business offices, such as law firms, accounting firms, technology companies, real estate offices, and research firms, where burglars look for electronic equipment like laptop computers, fax machines, and VCRs. Bars and restaurants were third.

The fourth highest category, construction sites, is a phenomenon that we will monitor closely over the next couple of years. We have seen an increase in both commercial breaks and larcenies from construction site gang boxes, trailers, and half-finished buildings. Burglars target expensive tools, building supplies, and heavy equipment.

School thefts increased in 1998, with computers and other electronic equipment targeted. One school in West Cambridge reported multiple breaks, and an ex-school employee was strongly suspected.

Church breaks also increased, with one pattern reported around Central Square in the early spring and a general trend increase in November. Church burglars are generally vagrants looking for petty cash or a place to sleep. The cost of repairing the broke door or window usually exceeds the value of the property stolen.

Five of the nine clothing store breaks occurred at the same Harvard Square establishment in November. The burglar targeted expensive coats in all instances. Cambridge Police investigators staking out the location arrested a 51-year-old man from Boston.

Day and Time

Commercial burglaries, naturally, are a nighttime phenomenon, occurring most frequently between 9:00 p.m. and 5:00 a.m. Very often, the day the burglary occurred is unknown-especially if it happened over the weekend, which is most common (52%). Tuesdays and Wednesdays are also popular, each accounting for 15 percent of total commercial breaks.

Offenders

The Cambridge Police Department arrested 13 people for commercial burglary in 1998-11 males and two females-ranging in age from 15 to 51, with a average age of 27 and a median age of 22. Four were juveniles (under 18). Two were homeless, five were from Boston, five were from Cambridge (one each from Peabody, Area 4, Cambridgeport, and Inman/Harrington), and one was from Miami Beach, Florida.

Cluster Analysis

Seasonal Variations

As with many crimes, we do not see many predictable seasonal patterns in commercial breaks. There was a time when the summer could be counted on for a visible spike, but not anymore. Both 1997 and 1998 did show noticeable peaks in August, but in both cases this was the result of brief but prolific crime series (i.e., the same burglar committing multiple crimes), not seasonal patterns. The graph to the right shows commercial burglaries by month for 1997 and 1998.

Residential Burglary

Residential burglaries, or "housebreaks," increased 20 percent between 1997 and 1998, from 406 incidents to 487. 1997's total was the lowest reported in about 30 years; 1998's is the second lowest.

Housebreaks has been affected greatly by the demise of the "professional burglar." The traditional summertime burglary pattern, which was once responsible for 200 to 300 breaks a year, has largely disappeared (though see the "Seasonal Variations" section below).

Geography

Predictably, residential burglaries are most likely to occur in densely populated residential neighborhoods. Traditionally the neighborhoods with the highest population and population density have also had the highest housebreak totals. Neighborhood statistics below show both the totals and the per capita totals.

The housebreak totals per neighborhood show that, in 1998, Cambridgeport had the highest total, followed by Peabody, Mid-Cambridge, and North Cambridge. These neighborhoods also have the four highest populations in the city.

When population is factored in, and housebreaks per 10,000 residents are calculated, we find that Cambridgeport, Area 4, East Cambridge, and Agassiz had the highest per capita totals (or the highest housebreak rates). More important, however, we see an overall evening-out of the housebreak phenomenon. It makes sense to look at housebreaks by population, because the number of residential units in a neighborhood is the primary factor behind that neighborhood's housebreak total.

Either way, certain neighborhoods experienced heavy increases between 1997 and 1998. Most notable were the Peabody, West Cambridge, and Riverside neighborhoods, both of which suffered from multiple patterns in the summer and fall, resulting in several arrests.

Mid-Cambridge and North Cambridge both declined while the other neighborhoods increased. This positive trend for both of these historically afflicted neighborhoods began in 1995. The Crime Analysis Unit attributes these decreases to the continued gentrification and development of these neighborhoods.

Day and Time

60% of housebreaks occur during the workday, from 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. 10% occur during the evening, from 5:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m., and 25% occur overnight between 10:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. Each time period features a different type of burglary:

Daytime burglars count on the fact that the residents are not at home. They spend more time in the residence and steal more valuables. They are most likely to strike large apartment buildings in densely-packed residential areas where they will be more anonymous in the visible daylight hours. Their entrances tend to be crude: kicking in the front door or breaking glass.

Nighttime burglars count on the fact that their residents are asleep. They are quieter, entering through an unlocked door or window, or by prying or jimmying a window. They spend a short amount of time in the residence and steal only property that they can carry in a single trip-usually lone items, like a VCR, a purse, or a laptop computer. They are more likely to target houses as well as apartments.

Evening burglars have the most gall (or the least sense) of all. They enter homes knowing that the residents are likely to be at home and awake. They creep through unlocked windows or doors, target cash or other small valuables, and get out quick. Almost all evening burglaries target houses, which typically more rooms, most of which are vacant, and more points of entry.

Daytime burglaries are most common on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and almost never happen on weekends. Nighttime breaks favor Friday and Saturday. Evening burglaries show no day of week preference.

Neighborhood/Pattern Analysis

Nighborhood/Pattern Analysis

Offenders

The Cambridge Police Department arrested 46 people-44 men and two women-for housebreaks in 1998. Only two were juveniles. Based on arrest data alone, housebreaks seem to be largely the work of men between 30 and 40; the average age was 34.

11 of the arrestees were homeless; eight of them had burglarized a home near Central Square.

23 were from Cambridge: eight from Riverside (six of these living at the YMCA), four from East Cambridge, three from Cambridgeport, two from Inman Square, two from Agassiz, and one each from North Cambridge, Mid-Cambridge, Peabody, and Strawberry Hill. Cambridge residents were 75% likely to have burglarized a home in their own neighborhood.

Five arrested burglars came from Boston, three from Somerville, and one each from Medford, Quincy, Taunton, and Waltham.

Seasonal Variations

For the past few years, this report has noted that the traditional summertime burglary spike seemed dormant. In 1997, for instance, January and February had more burglaries than the summer months.

In 1998, a summertime peak returned-though not as dramatic as in the 1980s and early 1990s. One extremely active pattern that swept through the Peabody neighborhood in July and August (resulting in the eventual arrest of a Somerville man) was almost entirely to blame.

No question, in 1998, housebreaks showed a definite seasonal trend. They picked up in May as the clocks sprang forward and didn't start to die off until we returned to standard time in October. This is consistent-if not to as sharp a degree-with pre-1994 trends, and the police department will keep a close watch on any increases in the spring and summer of 1999.

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